NFL Wild Card Preview

   That's right Bruce Buffer, it's time for some NFL playoff action! I'll take you through game by game in the wild card part of the playoffs and give you my predictions/bets.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Indianapolis Colts
   The Chiefs took the NFL by storm by starting the season off 9-0, but then things started to all apart with the losses of Tamba Hali and Justin Houston. Since then, they've been 2-5. Fantasy owners were happy with the performance of RB Jamaal Charles who is the 3rd leading rusher in the NFL (1,287 yards) and helped the Chiefs become the 10th best rushing offense. Alex Smith has been OK this season. He does Alex Smith things under Andy Reid's system which gave him a total QBR ranking of 22. The defensive numbers have dropped for the Chiefs, being in the bottom 20 in total defense and pass defense. However, they are 6th in scoring (26.9 ppg), and 5th scoring defense (19.1 ppg). The Chiefs are also 7th in DVOA (stat that measures defensive efficiency) and 1st in special teams DVOA. The Colts won the first meeting in week 16 with a 23-7 victory in Arrowhead. The Chiefs may be 6th in sacks, but Robert Mathis has lead the league in sacks with 19.5. Indy is 9th in scoring defense (21 ppg). Andrew Luck has beaten the good teams (SF, SEA, DEN, KC) but have struggled against the bad teams (OAK, HOU, TEN). Justin Houston is expected to play in this game with Tamba Hali and Eric Fisher questionable. The paradigm is that Indy has a bad run defense, but they've been around league average. I think Jamaal Charles will get his, but the pressure will be on the QBs. If Indy plays the way they've been playing (Andrew Luck heavy) then the Colts will run away with this game like they did before. Vegas has this game at a 'pick'. I say take the Colts because Andrew Luck got his beating last year against the Ravens and now 2nd time around, he'll get past the first round.
New Orleans Saints vs Philadelphia Eagles
 

Are Oregon fans rooting against the Eagles?

Congrats Chip Kelly! You made the playoffs and proved that your style of play can work. The Eagles are top 10 in almost every offensive category. That sounds good right? They have the 10th best rushing defense, but they are 29th in total defense and 32nd in pass defense. That's not good when you're playing Drew Brees who is 2nd in the NFL in passing yards (5,162). LeSean McCoy won the league rushing title with 1,607 yards. Brandon Boykin surprisingly is 2nd in the NFL in INTs with 6. Mychal Kendricks has been a surprise for the Eagles. He has been playing well forcing turnovers, something the Eagles will have to do in this game. Philly is 8th in DVOA and 2nd in offensive DVOA. If you look at the season stats for the Saints, they shock you. The Saints are also top 10 in almost every offensive category, but, unlike the Eagles, are top 10 in almost every defensive category as well. Just wow! Sean Payton and Rob Ryan are doing great for New Orleans. Rookie Kenny Vaccaro has been great and is a front-runner for defensive rookie of the year. He is definitely a player that they need healthy for not only this game but the playoffs as well. Cameron Jordan is 5th in the league in sacks with 12.5. The Saints are 4th in DVOA, and 5th in offensive DVOA. Vegas has this game at Philly favored by 3. Go with the Saints+3 on this one. The Saints aren't amazing on the road, but the Eagles aren't great at home either. I still think the Eagles are going to win this game, but if you are betting on this game, take the Saints.
San Diego Chargers vs Cincinnati Bengals
The Chargers found their way into the playoffs, controversially, but they're still in it. The struggles of the Chargers have been on defense. Phillip Rivers has been great for the offense (5th in passing yards), with the help of Danny Woodhead and Keenan Allen, but the defense is not helping them out. San Diego is a top 10 offensive, especially passing, and 1st on third down conversions, but 29th against the pass. The Bengals record says they are good, but to me, they seem inconsistent, mostly Andy Dalton. However, the Bengals also have a top 10 offense. They are also equipped with a top 10 defense that is especially good on opponents' third down conversions. Expect to hear about Vontaze Burfict who led the league in tackles (171) and of course A.J. Green who is 5th in receiving (1,426 yards). Vegas has this game at Cincy favored by 7. I say go with the Chargers+7, but I think the Bengals squeak this game out.
San Francisco 49ers vs Green Bay Packers
The 49ers are healthy once again with the return of Michael Crabtree, their top receiver of last year. This is important because without him, the 49ers are one of the bottom teams in passing. However, Frank Gore and Colin Kaepernick have helped them become a top 5 rushing team, a point where the Packers have struggled with, as of late. The 49ers have continued to be a top 10 defense that will go against a top 10 offense in the Packers who get QB Aaron Rodgers and WR Randall Cobb back. With the weather in Green Bay being

A repeat of last year's playoff match-up?

really cold (an understatement), most people would pick Green Bay. However, I don't think that is the case. The 49ers are a tough, grind it out team, something that has continued to shown success in the NFL. Watch out for NaVorro Bowman, (5th in the NFL in tackles). He has continued to be an underrated player and I expect him to show his impact come Sunday. The last three match-ups between these two teams saw the 49ers winning. Eddie Lacy will play a factor on whether the Packers pull thorough or not, more than Aaron Rodgers will, but the loss of Clay Matthews will hurt the Packers because they'll need whatever they can get to stop the read-option that the 49ers run. They haven't used it much this season, and I think they did that on purpose. Their offense wasn't healthy all season, and they wanted to keep Colin Kaepernick as healthy as possible. The read-option hype will come back and I would take SF-3 for the bet and the game.
Picks: Indy (pick), NO+3, SD+7, SF-3